Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
